A Measured View (April 07)

A MEASURED VIEW

A DECADE IN POLITICS

liquid assets, A MEASURED VIEW, APRIL 2007, COMMENTS

Speculation is rife in Westminster that Tony Blair will announce his resignation as Prime Minister after the next round of elections in early May (put a bet on 3 May with 8 May as your saver). If matters take their course as expected that should mean Gordon Brown taking the helm soon after – there may need to be a formal election process but at present it is hard to see a credible challenger. Prime Minister Brown, 10 years in the waiting, will then need to consider the make up of his Cabinet. With John Reid likely to stay on at a revised Home Office and Des Browne and Alistair Darling the leading contenders for Chancellor, there is the very real prospect that three of the top four jobs in UK politics will be held by Scots. Now, in effect, this would be a case of no change as Blair is technically Scottish – though not many voters perceive him as such. Would Middle England be happy with three overt Scots dominating the major offices of state?

If not, David Cameron could find himself the beneficiary as he welcomes voters back to the Tory-fold. The next election will be dominated by Labour attempting to position matters as a choice for votes between Brown, a politician of real substance or Cameron, an untried posh boy as lacking in policies as he is in experience. The Tories, for their part, will portray Cameron as the man for the future with the vision to bring economic, societal and environmental issues into a cohesive whole while labelling Brown as yesterday’s man, the Chancellor who wasted a golden economic legacy and has repeatedly turned the screw financially on the majority of voters.

As I am in a speculative frame of mind, I will offer you another thought – Brown takes the premiership, gives the public a year to grow accustomed to him as PM, then calls an election sharpish before anything bad can happen to the economy. That would date the vote at around June 2008. Now Labour (and Brown in particular) are incredibly effective campaigners who will use every possible resource at their disposal to secure additional votes. A key advantage that the Prime Minister of the UK has enjoyed for centuries is the ability to name his own election date. With the potential for both England and Scotland to qualify for Euro 2008 next Summer, how about the canny Brown opting for a date close enough to the start of the tournament to benefit from all the hype and optimism but not so far in to proceedings that we have seen our hopes and dreams turn to dust (think 1996, 1998, 2002, 2006)?

To me, that suggests Thursday 5 June as a likely election date. Oh and just so you can safely ignore the weeks of saturation media coverage, Labour will win with a majority of 22!

Words: Alex Eyre

From: September 2006 Issue

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